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THAAD
Mrz 20th, 2017 by Gao

Mel Gurtov: Diplomatic Remedies for THAAD Madness: The US, China and the Two Koreas (Japan Focus)

The US decision, supported by the South Korean government, to deploy an antimissile system known as THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) may be one of the most thoughtless strategic moves in a generation. The official US justification is that close-in defense against North Korean missiles is necessary to protect South Korea. But the deployment is having more than a few negative repercussions: an argument in China for increasing its nuclear weapons stockpile; an incentive in North Korea for continuing to develop its long-range missile capability; a deep fissure in China-South Korea relations; a roiling of South Korean politics at a time when its corrupt president has been impeached; and a new source of tension in already fraught Sino-US relations.

U.S. Deploys Missile System Amid Rising Tensions with N. Korea (Democracy Now)

Tensions are rising between the United States, North Korea and China, threatening to create the first significant national security crisis of the Trump presidency. This week, the United States began deploying a missile defense system to South Korea, sparking warnings from Chinese officials who say the U.S. is escalating a regional arms race. The U.S. says the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System, known as THAAD, seeks to protect South Korea amid a series of recent missile tests launched by North Korea…
The deployment of the U.S. missile system is widely opposed by both South Koreans, who have been protesting against U.S. militarization, and by Chinese officials, who say the missile system actually aims to counter China’s military power in the region, not to contain North Korea.
Chinese officials are calling for both an end to North Korea’s nuclear program and an end to joint U.S. and South Korean military drills.

Bruce Cumings, Amy Goodman: North Korea Timed Recent Missile Test to Take Place During Trump-Abe Dinner (Democracy Now)

North Korea tested a ballistic missile last month, sparking widespread international condemnation. The test was a violation of a United Nations Security Council resolution. North Korea claimed the test was a successful launch of an intermediate-range missile. The test came while Trump hosted Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe over the weekend at the Trump-owned Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida.

Christine Ahn, Bruce Cumings, Amy Goodman: China Warns U.S. & North Korea Are Set for „Head-On“ Collision Amid Rising Tensions & Provocations (Democracy Now)

The political upheaval in South Korea comes shortly after North Korea test-fired several ballistic missiles. In response, the Trump administration announced it would deploy a missile defense system to South Korea. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of South Korean and U.S. troops, backed by warships and warplanes, are currently engaging in a massive military exercise. Last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that the U.S. and North Korea are like two „accelerating trains coming toward each other.“ He called on both sides to de-escalate tensions.

David E. Sanger, William J. Broad: Trump Inherits a Secret Cyberwar Against North Korean Missiles (New York Times) / 트럼프가 물려받은 유산: 북한 미사일에 대응하는 비밀 사이버戰 / 特朗普接手的秘密计划:网络攻击破坏朝鲜导弹?

Three years ago, President Barack Obama ordered Pentagon officials to step up their cyber and electronic strikes against North Korea’s missile program in hopes of sabotaging test launches in their opening seconds…
An examination of the Pentagon’s disruption effort, based on interviews with officials of the Obama and Trump administrations as well as a review of extensive but obscure public records, found that the United States still does not have the ability to effectively counter the North Korean nuclear and missile programs…
In two meetings of Mr. Trump’s national security deputies in the Situation Room, the most recent on Tuesday, all those options were discussed, along with the possibility of reintroducing nuclear weapons to South Korea as a dramatic warning…
The White House is also looking at pre-emptive military strike options, a senior Trump administration official said, …

Philippinen | Thailand | Korea
Okt 24th, 2016 by Gao

Anthony V. Rinna: Can Duterte’s diplomacy have it all? (East Asia Forum)

Less than six months into his tenure as President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte has embarked on what even he considers to be risky foreign policy moves. In September 2016, he declared that he is about to ‘cross the Rubicon’ in the Philippines’ relationship with the United States.
The ‘crossing’ Duterte refers to is his plan to enhance the Philippines’ relationships with Russia and China.

Greg Raymond: What’s wrong with the United States’ Southeast Asian allies? (East Asia Forum)

The Philippines and Thailand are not acting like US treaty allies are supposed to. While the Philippines’ President Rodrigo Duterte seems somewhat of an outlier, his anti-Americanism is only the latest instalment of instability in the US–Philippines relationship. Thai–US relations have also suffered since the 2014 military coup and Thailand now appears to be seeking closer military ties with China. But these countries’ disagreements with the United States do not necessarily mean they want a change to the status quo in Asia.

Andrei Lankov: Learning to live with a nuclear North Korea (East Asia Forum)

North Korea has done it again. On 9 October they conducted yet another nuclear test, so far the most powerful and arguably the most successful. To make matters worse, there are good reasons to expect that another test is in the making.

Nidhi Prasad: Japan’s nuclear insurance against North Korea (East Asia Forum)

George Shultz’s axiom that ‘proliferation begets proliferation’ appears to be contested in East Asia. North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test on 9 September, leaving its non-nuclear Asian neighbours vexed. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe termed it ‘totally unacceptable’ and has called for strict sanctions. But the international fear of North Korea’s nuclear tests triggering a chain of nuclear tests in East Asia or the rise of a nuclear tsunami seems to have been dispelled with the United States’ Asian allies favouring ‘strategic assurance’.

Korea | Inselstreit
Jun 27th, 2016 by Gao

Johnny Erling: Nordkorea: Kim provoziert mit Doppelraketentest

Nordkoreas Machthaber Kim Jong-un schlug zum richtigen Zeitpunkt gleich doppelt zu. Den UN-Sanktionen zum Trotz forderte er wieder einmal alle Welt heraus – mit zwei Raketentests kurz hintereinander, und das, obwohl die Vereinten Nationen solche Tests seinem Land verboten haben. … Kim befahl den ersten Test nach Angaben der südkoreanischen Nachrichtenagentur Yonhap Mittwochfrüh um 5.58 Uhr. Er ließ eine Mittelstreckenrakete vom Typ Musudan von der Ostküste Nordkoreas abschießen. US- und südkoreanisches Militär sehen in ihr eine potenzielle Trägerwaffe, die künftig mit einem Atomsprengkopf bestückt werden könnte. Mit einer Reichweite von 3000 bis 4000 Kilometern erreicht sie angeblich jeden Punkt in Japan und bedroht auch US-Stellungen auf Guam und in Alaska. …
Südkoreas Verteidigungsbehörden nannten den Test „misslungen“. Das Geschoß sei 150 Kilometer vom Start entfernt ins Meer gestürzt. Seit April ist es der inzwischen fünfte Fehlschlag in Folge. Doch um 8.05 Uhr zündete Nordkorea eine zweite Musudan. Sie soll laut Yonhap rund 400 Kilometer weit gekommen sein.

Justin McCurry: North Korea: UN security council ‚to meet‘ after missile tests (Guardian)

The missiles are usually test-fired at a flatter angle to maximise their range, according to Jeffrey Lewis at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California. “That suggests the missile worked perfectly,” he said. “Had it been fired at its normal angle, it would have flown to its full range.”…
It was not immediately clear whether Pyongyang considered the second Musudan launch a success or failure, or how the flight ended.

Pepe Escobar: Beijing goes mobile in the South China Sea (RT)

Not a day goes by without some sort of turmoil in the South China Sea. Let’s cut to the chase: war is not about to break out.

Scenarios of the Coming Crisis: A Response to Aufheben’s “The Crisis: Afterword” (Chuang)

In China, official politics is a game of arcane signals. Predicting tectonic shifts in policy requires that one read the seismic shudders buried beneath terse statements issued by poker-faced officials. Slight changes in terminology may hint at sliding allegiances or new waves of repression. The most significant signals, however, take the form of interviews with anonymous oracles—almost always an “authoritative person”—their words propagated by the state’s highest media organs without attribution. The more such oracles speak, the greater the magnitude of the coming “intervention.” Such proclamations also often signal internal disagreements within the seemingly monolithic Chinese Communist Party (CCP). With the slowing of economic growth, such disagreements have been exacerbated, as the top leadership debates the future of the economic reforms that have led China into a commanding role within global circuits of capital accumulation.

Qiao Long, Wong Lok-to, Luisetta Mudie: Chinese Blogger Who Compiled Protest Data Missing, Believed Detained (Radio Free Asia)

TTP | Klimawandel | Hongkong
Mai 4th, 2015 by Gao

Patrick L. Smith: The real story behind Shinzo Abe’s visit: China, TPP and what the media won’t tell you about this state visit (Salon)

In agreements reached as soon as they met Monday, Abe and President Obama have taken defense ties to an intimacy unprecedented in history. As it stands now, this breaches Article 9 of the Japanese constitution, the “no-war” clause barring Japan from military activities other than those in direct defense of its shores.
On the White House steps Tuesday, Abe confirmed his conscription as a commissioned officer in Washington’s campaign to get its ambitious trade pact, the corporate-drafted Trans-Pacific Partnership, signed this year. “We will continue to cooperate to lead the TPP talks through their last phase,” Abe said in one of those side-by-side tableaux commonly staged for the press and the television cameras…
You will hear 55 times over the next little while that, no, the escalation of defense ties has nothing to do with containing the mainland. And no, the TPP may happen to exclude China but is not intended to exclude China.

Reuters: Climate change threatens major building projects, says Chinese expert (Guardian)

Zheng Guoguang, head of China’s meteorological administration, told Monday’s issue of state newspaper the Study Times that the increase in recent weather disasters such as floods, typhoons, droughts and heat waves had a “big connection” to climate change.
Such catastrophes were a threat to big schemes such as the Three Gorges Dam and a high-altitude railway to Tibet, he said.

Liu Qin: China govt cancels green festival as public consciousness on environment grows (China Dialogue)

Chinese authorities last week ordered the last-minute cancellation of an environmental festival in Beijing that was planned to mark Earth Day, a global event aimed at raising awareness of climate change and the Paris summit at the end of the year.
China’s best-known environmental group, Friends of Nature, asked people not to turn up to its Beijing Earth Day Environmental Protection Festival after Beijing police said the event was not permitted to go ahead and that the „online impact“ of the event be toned down.

Suzanne Sataline: What Happened to Hong Kong’s Pro-Democracy Movement? (Foreign Policy)

The activists from last year’s massive democracy occupation have splintered. Nowhere is this clearer than on college campuses represented by the Hong Kong Federation of Students, one of the architects of the fall 2014 pro-democracy protests that roiled the Chinese territory. Students at three local universities have voted to quit the league of university students; more vote drives are underway. Critics, some swayed by rising nativist anger, say student leaders’ insistence on passive resistance at the height of the protests doomed the push for open elections for the city’s chief executive, instead of a slate of candidates pre-vetted by Beijing. As the wounded student group tries to shore up its membership, its allies worry that the loss of a united student front will push the already anemic pro-democracy camp closer to irrelevance.

Conal Urquhart: Chinese workers in Israel sign no-sex contract (Guardian)

Chinese workers at a company in Israel have been forced to agree not to have sex with or marry Israelis as a condition of getting a job…
The labourers are also forbidden from engaging in any religious or political activity. The contract states that offenders will be sent back to China at their own expense.
About 260,000 foreigners work in Israel, having replaced Palestinian labourers during three years of fighting. When the government first allowed the entrance of the foreign workers in the late 1990s, ministers warned of a „social timebomb“ caused by their assimilation with Israelis.
More than half the workers are in the country illegally…
Advocates of foreign workers, who also come from Thailand, the Philippines and Romania, say they are subject to almost slave conditions, and their employers often take away their passports and refuse to pay them.

Michael Forsythe: Who Owns Shares in Wang Jianlin’s Empire? Names Are Just a Start (New York Times)

James Palmer: Forced Disappearances, Brutality, and Communist China’s Politics of Fear (Vice)

Südchinesisches Meer | Energieabkommen | Korruption
Jun 10th, 2014 by Gao

Eklat um Territorialstreit bei Asiens Dialogkonferenz (Standard)
Gebietsstreitigkeiten in Ostasien – beanspruchte Wirtschaftszonen
Christoph Prantner: Konflikt im Südchinesischen Meer: Die Zeichen stehen auf Krieg (Standard)

Ashley Smith: Russia and China make a deal (Socialist Worker)

An alliance between Russia, the world’s largest energy producer, and China, the world’s largest energy consumer, will remake superpower relations …
Russia’s state-owned energy company, Gazprom, has promised to drill new gas fields in Siberia, construct a new 2,500-mile pipeline and ship 1.3 trillion cubic feet of gas each year to the state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation. China will invest $20 billion and Russia $55 billion to fund this massive project…
China will pay $350 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to National Public Radio, a bit lower than the European standard and dramatically lower than the average in Asia. China will in turn use the deal with Russia to pressure its other suppliers to lower their prices. By securing gas through an overland pipeline from Siberia, China lessens its dependence on imports of oil and gas through the chokepoint of the Straight of Malacca, which the U.S. polices with its Navy.

Johnny Erling: China verurteilt zwei Konzernchefs zum Tode (Standard)

Luftabwehridentifizierungszone
Dez 7th, 2013 by Gao

Knut Mellenthin: Vorteil China (junge Welt)

Die erste Runde ging an China: Die US-Regierung hat den Fluggesellschaften ihres Landes dringend empfohlen, die »Luftverteidigungsidentifizierungszone« der Volksrepublik über dem Ostchinesischen Meer zu respektieren. Diese Entscheidung wurde am Freitag offiziell bekanntgegeben, war den Unternehmen aber angeblich schon am Mittwoch mitgeteilt worden. Damit halten gegenwärtig nur noch Japan und Südkorea daran fest, ihre Fluggesellschaften zur Mißachtung der Zone zu nötigen und damit die Passagiere erheblichen Risiken auszusetzen. Die meisten ausländischen Gesellschaften, dem Vernehmen nach auch die australische Quantas, hatten sich den neuen chinesischen Anweisungen von vornherein gefügt. Auch die beiden größten japanischen Luftfahrtunternehmen hatten sich mehrere Tage lang daran gehalten, bis ihnen das von ihrer Regierung untersagt wurde.

Peter Lee: Has Abe overreached on China’s ADIZ? (Asia Times)

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has cleverly exploited the China’s unilateral announcement of its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in order to assert Japanese impunity in military flights equal to that of the United States, a key element of Japan’s ambitions to act as the local hegemon in oceanic East Asia.

Huang Wei: China’s Perspective on the ADIZ: Backfire or Signal Flare? (China Policy Institute)
Richard Javad Heydarian: ADIZ stirs fears for South China Sea (Asia Times)

China’s Defense Ministry’s announcement said that it will „establish other air defense identification zones at an appropriate time after completing preparations“. To Manila and Hanoi, these statements signal that China intends to eventually adopt an ADIZ over the contested Paracel and Spratly islands and other features in the South China Sea. …
„There’s this threat that China will control the air space [in the South China Sea] … It transforms an entire air zone into China’s domestic air space,“ Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert Del Rosario said in response to China’s ADIZ announcement. „That is an infringement and compromises the safety of civil aviation … it also compromises the national security of affected states.“

Peter Lee: More Fun With China’s ADIZ (China Matters)
Peter Lee: Del Rosario Not Afraid to Be Stupid About ADIZ (China Matters)
Peter Lee: China makes a splash with coastguard rules (China Matters)

Reuters for some reason continued to beat the Hainan coast guard regulations dead horse with an analysis posted on December 9 that begins:
Imagine if the U.S. state of Hawaii passed a law allowing harbor police to board and seize foreign boats operating up to 1,000 km (600 miles) from Honolulu.

The jurisdiction of the state of Hawaii extends 1380 miles from Honolulu to the outermost Northwestern Hawaiian Island, the Kure Atoll.
For the mathematically challenged Reuters scribe, that’s more than twice as far as 600 miles that supposedly symbolizes the irresponsible overreach of the Hainan provincial government.

Südkorea spitzt Inselstreit zu (junge Welt)

Im Streit um Gebietsansprüche im Ostchinesischen Meer sorgt nun Südkorea für eine weitere Zuspitzung. Die Regierung in Seoul kündigte an, ihre eigene Zone zur Luftraumüberwachung in südlicher Richtung zu erweitern. Das neue Areal schließt künftig auch eine unter Wasser gelegene Felsformation ein, die von Südkorea kontrolliert, aber auch von China beansprucht wird. Die Regelungen für die neue Zone würden Mitte Dezember in Kraft treten, teilte das Verteidigungsministerium in Seoul am Sonntag mit. Es gebe durch den Schritt künftig weder Beschränkungen für die Zivilluftfahrt, noch werde der Luftraum anderer Länder verletzt. Die Luftverteidigungszone war ursprünglich 1951 während des Koreakriegs von den USA eingerichtet worden.

Grenzkonflikt mit Indien | Inselkonflikt mit Japan | Myanmar
Mai 28th, 2013 by Gao

M. K. Bhadrakumar: Frost in a promising Indian summer (Asia Times)
Gavan McCormack: Much Ado over Small Islands: The Sino-Japanese Confrontation over Senkaku/Diaoyu (Japan Focus)
Brendan O’Reilly: Li makes his Potsdam declaration (Asia Times)
Prashanth Parameswaran: China’s Strategic Recalibration in Burma (Jamestown Foundation)

Außenpolitik und Innenpolitik
Mai 20th, 2013 by Gao

J.B. hat eine Debatte über diese Artikel angeregt:
Susanna Bastaroli: Expertin: „China will nicht so zahnlos wie die Europäer werden“ (Presse)

Laut China-Expertin Weigelin-Schwierdzik dienen Chinas Kriegsdrohungen in Asien der Legitimation einer zunehmend schwächelnden KP. Die Dynamik könnte außer Kontrolle geraten.

Angela Köhler: Wie Japans Umgang mit der Geschichte die Zukunft blockiert (Presse)

Immer wieder sorgt der undiplomatische Umgang japanischer Politiker mit der schmutzigen Vergangenheit für heftige Empörung in den früheren Opferstaaten.

Wolfgang Greber: Die Angst der amerikanischen Admiräle (Presse)

Noch sind die USA im Verbund mit Alliierten wie Japan und Australien Herren des Pazifiks. An deren Thron rüttelt China aber gewaltig.

Zwei Literaturhinweise von H.K.; zunächst zum Thema:
David Shambaugh: China Goes Global. Oxford University Press, 2013.
Ebenfalls lesenswert:
David Shambaugh: China’s Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation. University of California Press, 2009.

Diaoyutai | Abe Shinzō
Feb 19th, 2013 by Gao

John V. Walsh: US goads Japan into China confrontation (Asia Times)
William Lowther: Schriver says ‘constructive’ role needed in Diaoyutais (Taipei Times)
Robert H. Wade: China and Japan: the other side of the story (Monde diplomatique)
Lionel Fatton: The Pandora’s Box of Sovereignty Conflicts: Far-reaching regional consequences of Japan’s nationalization of the Senkakus (Japan Focus)
Ivy Lee, Fang Ming: Deconstructing Japan’s Claim of Sovereignty over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands (Japan Focus)

Narusawa Muneo 成澤宗男:安倍晋三と極右歴史修正主義者は、世界の敵である / 安倍晋三 – 极右历史窜改主义者是世界和平的最大敌人 / 아베 신조와 극우 역사수정주의자는 세계의 적이다 (Peace Philosophy Centre) / Abe Shinzo, a Far-Right Denier of History (Japan Focus)

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